Case studies




2. Vulnerability indicators

Biogeophysical and social indicators are identified for which it is (or should be) possible to provide quantitative projections either through process-based or statistical modelling.  These include peri-urban forest fires, ozone exceedance or anomalies; all-cause mortality; energy demand; marine characteristics; tourism, and wheat yields (all the rural case studies).  It is also possible to provide quantitative estimates of some vulnerability indicators that are based on climate variables, such as a temperature-defined tourist season, or a rainfall and temperature-defined drought indicator.  For other indicators, there is a lack of appropriate data / models to allow quantitative impact assessments, e.g., marine water quality in the Gulf of Valencia, shoreline changes in the Gulf of Gabès, and waterborne disease in Beirut.  For these indicators, there is nonetheless, sufficient local evidence and knowledge of current trends and response to climate and non-climate drivers to allow more qualitative climate change impactsassessments.

Case-study capacity for quantitative or qualitative assessments
'I' denotes impact indicators; 'V' denotes vulnerability indicators

Case study




Peri-urban forest fires (I&V)
Mortality (I)
Energy consumption (I)
Ozone exceedance (V)



Heat-related mortality (I)

Saline intrusion (V)
Drinking water quality (V)
Waterborne disease (V)

Alexandria -
West Nile Delta:

Total Ozone column anomaly (V&I)
Vulnerability to sea level rise by land use type (V)

Fire pixel count (V&I)
Aerosol types (dust, pollution, mixed, clean) (V&I)


Wheat yields (I)
Tourist arrivals (I)
Fire Weather Index (V)
Water availability (V)

Land use (V)


Wine, wheat, oil production (I)
Annual number of tourists (I)

Total value index for wine, wheat oil (I)

Tel Hadya:

Wheat yield (I)

Water availability (V)

Judean Foothills:

Grain yield in rain-fed wheat (I)
Stem volume (I)
Natural vegetation types (I)
Population growth (V)
Water production / consumption (V)

Land use (V)
Visits to a national park (I)

Gulf of Valencia:

Salt-water intrusion (I&V)

Coastal erosion (I&V)
Water quality (V)

Gulf of Oran:

Marine pollution discharges (I&V)
Water quality parameters (riverine, estuarine sites) (I&V)

Invasive marine species (jellyfish, green algae) (I)
Foot-web changes - dolphins (V)

Gulf of Gabès:

Alien marine species (I&V)
Fish Production (I)
Daily Climate Potential Index (DCPI) (I)
Socio-economic losses due to changes in the DCPI and beach erosion(I)
Maximum swell height (V)

Shoreline modification (I)
Coastal Vulnerability Index (V)