Climate projections: mean changes

Summary seasonal mean changes for the Mediterranean region are given in the table below for the six coupled atmosphere-ocean CIRCE models. The models are consistent in indicating warming over the region, from 0.8 to 2.0°C in winter (DJF) and from 1.2°C to 2.5°C in summer (JJA) for the future period, 2021-2050 compared with the 'present' period, 1961-1990. The projections for precipitation tend to indicate drier conditions but are less consistent, reflecting the generally higher uncertainties for this variable.

CIRCE climate models: seasonal mean changes over the Mediterranean
for 2021-2050 with respect to 1961-1990
 Model acronym

Tdjf

Tjja

Pdjf

Pjja

CNRM

0.78

1.42

-0.03

-0.03

INGV

1.44

1.68

-0.25

-0.09

IPSL1

2.01

2.46

-0.11

-0.05

IPSL2

1.00

1.16

0.07

-0.07

ENEA

0.97

1.41

-0.17

0.06

MPI

1.38

1.52

-0.03

0.01
T = temperature; P = precipitation; djf = 'winter' Dec-Jan-Feb; jja = 'summer' Jun-Jul-Aug

Climate projections for the case studies:

Climate indicators have been constructed using output from the CIRCE climate models using a single grid box for the urban case studies, and the average of land-based grid boxes for the rural and coastal case studies. Mean annual maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and total annual rainfall were used as core indicators for many of the case studies. Plots showing case-study changes in these core climate indicators for the period 1950 to 2050 are available to download as a Word document.