STARDEX Deliverable D18

Objective

To summarise likely changes in extremes at the end of the 21st Century.

Responsible author

Clare Goodess, UEA

Outline

This deliverable provides a summary of how the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may change by the end of the 21st century in response to global warming. The regional information was obtained using state-of-the-art climate modeling and regional downscaling techniques developed during the STARDEX European Union-funded research project.

Information Sheets

These region-specific information sheets provide an ideal overview for a general audience. Each sheet covers a different case-study region.
• Introduction and overview
• Alps
• Germany (Rhine valley)
• Greece
• Italy (Emilia Romagna)
• UK (SE and NW England)

Regional Analyses

These detailed analyses contain site-specific downscaled changes in indices of extreme temperature and precipitation.
• Italy (Emilia Romagna) Precipitation
• Italy (Emilia Romagna) Temperature
• Alps Precipitation
• Alps Temperature
• Europe Temperature A2 scenario ensemble A
• Europe Temperature A2 scenario ensemble B
• Europe Temperature A2 scenario ensemble C
• Europe Temperature B2 scenario ensemble A
• Europe Precipitation A2 scenario ensemble A
• Europe Precipitation A2 scenario ensemble B
• Europe Precipitation A2 scenario ensemble C
• Europe Precipitation B2 scenario ensemble A
• Germany (Rhine valley) Precipitation
• Germany (Rhine valley) Temperature
• UK (NW and SE England) Precipitation
• Iberian Peninsula Precipitation

Presentations

Slides from these presentations may be used provided that STARDEX is duly acknowledged.
• Downscaling heavy precipitation over the UK: a comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios Malcolm Haylock, October 2005

Publications

Please contact Clare Goodess for a PDF.
• M. R. Haylock, G. C. Cawley, C. Harpham, R. L. Wilby and C. M. Goodess, 2005: Downscaling heavy precipitation over the UK: a comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios. Submitted to International Journal of Climatology.
• J. Schmidli, C. M. Goodess, C. Frei, M. R. Haylock, Y. Hundecha, J. Ribalaygua, T. Schmith, 2005: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation: An Evaluation and Comparison of Scenarios for the European Alps. In preparation.