Climate Change Scenarios for Precipitation Indices for Region Iberia. CNRS "PPCI" downscaling algorithm.

Change between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Figures are percentages. Blue figures: changes to wetter conditions. Red figures: changes to dryer ones.

Average change between three ensembles in each time slice. For SRES emission scenario A2. Driving GCM: HadAM3P.

The "PPCI" method was developped by CNRS INLN partner 5. It consists in a Downscaling algorithm based on the link existing between Large Scale Circulation and Intense Precipitation Events. For further explanations, see CNRS INLN partner 5 contribution to STARDEX report D12, available on STARDEX WeB site: Downscaling of Extremes for Precipitation over 10 Alpine and 16 Iberian stations; Application of a Stochastic algorithm based on a "Potential Precipitation Circulation Index" ("ppci") defined using NCEP Reanalysed Large Scale Z700 Geopotential field (1958-2000).

All seasons (4 maps per figure)

Method	Pav	Pint	Px5d	PQ90	PNl90	PFl90	PxCDD
PPCI	A2	A2	A2	A2	A2	A2	A2

Brief comment

Sub-regional patterns clearly appear through dominance of one colour (blue: wetter; red: dryer). For instance, three seasons out of four are forecast to get dryer for western Iberia (all except winter).

Please notice that the "PPCI" algorithm focalizes on changes due to circulation changes.