Climate Change Scenarios for Precipitation Indices

for Region SE and NW England

Change between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100.

A2 is average change between three ensembles in each time slice.

For SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2.

Driving GCM: HadAM3P

The following are changes (in %) of each index averaged over 6 downscaling methods. Blue is a decrease and red is an increase. Max circle size corresponds with scale in top right.


winter: DJF

Method

pav

pint

px5d

pq90

pnl90

pfl90

pxcdd

6-model mean SE England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

6-model mean NW England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2


spring: MAM

Method

pav

pint

px5d

pq90

pnl90

pfl90

pxcdd

6-model mean SE England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

6-model mean NW England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2


summer: JJA

Method

pav

pint

px5d

pq90

pnl90

pfl90

pxcdd

6-model mean SE England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

6-model mean NW England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2


autumn: SON

Method

pav

pint

px5d

pq90

pnl90

pfl90

pxcdd

6-model mean SE England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

6-model mean NW England

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2

A2 / B2