STARDEX Deliverable D12

Objective

To intercompare statistically downscaled extremes based on NCEP Reanalysis data (1958-2000) and to identify the best methods

Responsible author

Torben Schmith, DMI and Clare Goodess, UEA

Outline

This deliverable provides a detailed intercomparison of more than 20 improved statistical downscaling methodologies developed in the STARDEX project. In order to evaluate the ability of these methods to reproduce present-day indices of extremes, NCEP Reanalysis data is used to provide the predictor variables. A common set of verification principles is used to ensure that the intercomparison is fair and consistent. From the initial intercomparison exercise described in the initial synthesis report, it was not possible to identify the best methods. Thus more detailed regional analyses were undertaken using a larger set of stations. A synthesis of these regional analyses is provided in a journal paper with Clare Goodess, UEA as lead author - see publications below.

Reports

Synthesis

• Initial Synthesis Report

Regional Comparisons

• Germany regional comparison
• Italy regional comparison
• UK regional comparison
• Iberia regional comparison
• Alps regional comparison
• Greece regional comparison
• Europe regional comparison

Partner Reports

• D12_ETH_alps.pdf
• D12_ETH_uk.pdf
• D12_ADGB.doc
• D12_KCL_Iberia.doc
• D12_UNIBE.pdf
• D12_UEA_Europe.doc
• D12_UEA_UK.pdf
• D12_USTUTT.pdf
• D12_CNRS.pdf

Presentations

Slides from these presentations may be used provided that STARDEX is duly acknowledged.
• D12 summary Torben Schmith, May 2004
• Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation and temperature Ð a systematic and rigorous inter-comparison of methods Clare Goodess, EGU, April 2004

Publications

Please contact Clare Goodess for a PDF.
• Goodess, C.M., Anagnostopoulou, C., Bardossy, A., Frei, C., Harpham, C., Haylock, M.R., Hundecha, Y., Maheras, P., Ribalaygua, J., Schmidli, J., Schmith, T., Tolika, K., Tomozeiu, R. and Wilby, R.L., 2005: An intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods for Europe and European regions Ð assessing their performance with respect to extreme temperature and precipitation events. Submitted to Climatic Change.
• M. R. Haylock, G. C. Cawley, C. Harpham, R. L. Wilby and C. M. Goodess, 2005: Downscaling heavy precipitation over the UK: a comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios. Submitted to International Journal of Climatology.
• J. Schmidli, C. M. Goodess, C. Frei, M. R. Haylock, Y. Hundecha, J. Ribalaygua, T. Schmith, 2005: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation: An Evaluation and Comparison of Scenarios for the European Alps. In preparation.