Climate projections - seasonal changes for specific global warming levels

Projections of national average climate changes, for each of the standard seasons, under specific global warming levels. The information presented is described on the overview page.

Changes in national average seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation are shown for a fixed global warming of 2 °C above the 1961-1990 baseline, based on 21 CMIP3 climate models (coloured, open symbols), 21 CMIP5 climate models (coloured, filled symbols) and 18 QUMP climate models (black letters). The spread in the projections from these three multi-model ensembles is visualized by the shaded ellipses (pink for CMIP3, brown for CMIP5 and blue for QUMP). The outer ellipse line marks the +/-2 standard deviation range of the models in each ensemble, while the innder ellipse line marks the +/-1 standard deviation range. These are not directly interpretable as probabilistic projections (see caveats and limitations of these projections for more information).

The small black dots (and associated ellipses) provide an estimate of the natural variability inherent in our climate, with each one representing a 30-year average of national average precipitation and temperature calculated from a 1000-year "control run" simulation with the CMIP3/CMIP5 HadCM3 climate model.

Also shown are changes in national average seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation for global warmings of 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C, though only for the 21 CMIP5 climate models.

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Overview of annual changes and data files for these and other variables

For the overview of annual changes or to download climate projection data for temperature, precipitation and the other available variables, click these links.

• Prescribed warming scenarios: Overview : Seasonal projections : Data