National average climate information from ClimGen

Climate projections & observations

Caveats & limitations

How to cite: Osborn et al. (2016)

Important notes:

  1. The climate information is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind.
  2. Read about this climate information so that you understand the purpose of these climate projections.
  3. Read the caveats given below so that you understand the limitations of these climate projections.
  4. Contact us if you are still unsure how to make use of this information.


  • The projections are provided to explore spread across model ensembles, not to provide probabilities of future changes. The shaded ellipses shown in the future projections are to visualize the spread in the multi-model ensembles. They should not be interpreted as probabilistic projections. This is because the ensembles of models are not random samples of possible future climates, nor do the model ensembles represent all of the uncertainties present in projecting future climate. For example, all models have common structural errors and limitations in their representation of the climate system (limited resolution, approximate parameterisations and omitted processes).
  • The projections are based indirectly on GCM climate models.
  • The pattern-scaling technique is used to approximately emulate the projections obtained directly from GCMs.
  • The projections under high-end warming scenarios or specific warming levels above 4 °C should be used with caution. The patterns used in the pattern-scaling technique have been diagnosed from GCM simulations that typically cover global warming up to 3 or 4 °C. Projections provided here for global warming higher than this are essentially linear extrapolations of GCM behaviour under lower amounts of warming and extrapolations have larger errors. This caveat applies especially to Arctic islands/regions in seasons where sea-ice melt can lead to rapid, large increases in air temperature that may not continue at the same warming rate once the sea-ice has disappeared.
  • Changes in national average climate should be used with caution in countries with large geographical variations in their climate, because changes in climate may also be different across the country. Refer to the observations section of each country to see maps of the present-day climate across the country.