Climatic Research Unit

s2d GCM data archives

This page provides access to global outputs from ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) hindcasts.

Stream 1 and 2 data sets :

The seasonal to decadal hindcast production period for stream 1 seasonal simulations is 1991 to 2001. This set of simulations is also referred to as the RT1 pre-production runs and uses three different forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty and has the following characteristics:

• Multi-model from ECMWF, UK Met Office, Meteo-France and IfM Kiel's operational activities and DEMETER experience
• Perturbed parameter approach, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office
• Stochastic physics, built from the stochastic physics system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF
• 1991-2001 hindcasts

The set up of the stream 2 hindcasts is available here:

Data archives

ECMWF has developed the public dissemination system for ENSEMBLES s2d data. It provides atmospheric and ocean outputs from the stream 1 and 2 multi-model simulations in both GRIB and NetCDF format using MARS-based and OPeNDAP servers. ECMWF also provides the data dissemination point for the DEMETER seasonal forecasts.

Links to data archives	Details	Access
Public data dissemination system	The s2d ENSEMBLES global hindcasts are disseminated using a MARS-based server and a server using the OPeNDAP technology. The system has been conceived and developed to help project partners, external scientists and users to access the hindcasts in the most efficient way for their specific requirements. The server contains seasonal and annual multi-model ensemble hindcasts of the ENSEMBLES Stream 1 and 2 from several forecast systems.	Public
OPeNDAP server	This powerful and flexible tool offers the possibility of accessing the dataset to external client applications, which is expected to widen the use of the data.	Public
MARS	This tool provides a quick and easy way to interactively download the data.	Member-state users only

 

Reports

A series of ENSEMBLES deliverable reports provide a technical description and analysis of these simulations and model outputs.

Links to data archives	Details	Access
D1.4	A new multi-model coupled model ensemble system for seasonal to decadal forecasts will be created and installed at ECMWF, with capabilities to run, in addition, perturbed parametrizations, and stochastic physics.	Public
D1.8	Updated assessment in terms of forecast quality and potential economic value of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representation of model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts.	Public
D1.11	Scientific report/paper documenting the improved seasonal hindcast skill of the ECHAM5/OM1 coupled model in the ENSEMBLES stream 1 simulations, relative to DEMETER and the model improvements responsible	Public
D1.13	Scientific report/paper on documenting the seasonal hindcast skill of the most recent version of the stochastic physics scheme developed at ECMWF	Public
D2A.1.2	Design of a suitable strategy for the initialisation of the decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2001 period.	Public
D2A.4.3	Preliminary version of the ECMWF public data server for the dissemination of seasonal-to-decadal simulations.	Public
D4.4.1	Synthesis of current estimates and mechanisms of predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales, including understanding the influence of ocean initial conditions, and with a focus on the North Atlanic European sector.	Public
D4.4.2	Statement on the processes that give rise to decadal forecast skill in the Euro-Atlantic sector	Public
D4.4.3	Analysis of the impact of Intraseasonal Variability on the seasonal predictability in the Tropics	Public
D5.6	Outline assessment of decadal forecast quality in the IndoPacific sector from the initial ENSEMBLES forecasts	Public
D5.7	Assessment of the skill of seasonal NAO and PNA using multi-model seasonal integrations from DEMETER	Public
D5.11	Assessment of the representation of the tropical intraseasonal variability and its impact on seasonal predictability.	Public
D5.12	Assessment of the climate predictability in perfect-model mode over the North Atlantic/European sector for seasonal to decadal timescales based on high resolution AGCM simulations	Public
D5.13	Report illustrating the challenges of interpretation and application of an ensemble of imperfect models on seasonal timescales	Public
D6.11	Report on the recommendations of methods to evaluate hindcasts probabilistically.	Public
M1.2	Preliminary assessment of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representing model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts. Recommendations to the ENSEMBLES project concerning the design of the production ensemble system.	Public
M1.8	Completion of the seasonal-to-decadal stream 2 hindcasts (joint milestone with MM2A.3)	Public
MM1.2	Provision of a "first generation" ensemble prediction system (Version 1) for use in RT2	Public
M2A.4.2	Final version of the public data server to disseminate seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts	Public
M4.4.4	Assessment of the importance of including variable GHGs in seasonal forecasts/hindcasts to guide construction of the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations	Public

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