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This page provides links to non-ENSEMBLES research relevant to the ENSEMBLES work on probabilistic regional climate projections and impact assessment.
Project Details DEMETER
Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction
DEMETER developed a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to interannual prediction and established the practical utility of the system, particularly to the agriculture and health sectors.
Project dates: April 2000-September 2003PRUDENCE Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects
PRUDENCE provided a series of high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe, a quantitative assessment of the risks arising from changes in regional weather and climate in different parts of Europe and also examined the uncertainties in the climate scenarios and the projected impacts.
Project dates: November 2001-October 2004STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions
STARDEX provided a rigorous and systematic inter-comparison and evaluation of statistical and dynamical downscaling methods for the construction of scenarios of extremes. It produced scenarios of extremes for 2071-2100 for the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios for six European case-study regions (SE and NW England, German Rhine, Emilia Romagna, Greece, Iberian Peninsula and the Alps as well as Europe as a whole).
Project dates: February 2002 to July 2005PESETA Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up Analysis
PESETA makes a multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts and costs of climate change in Europe for the periods 2011-2040 and 2071-2100. It focuses on the impacts of climate change on coastal systems, energy demand, human health, agriculture, tourism, and floods. PESETA is based on model-based assessment of impacts of climate change and uses common socioeconomic and climate scenarios across the sectorial studies. Various approaches to adaptation are also considered, including the non-adaptation case.
Project finished mid 2007.CECILIA Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and VulnerabiLIty Assessment
CECILIA focusses on climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Emphasis is given to applications of regional climate modelling studies at a resolution of 10 km. The project includes studies of hydrology, water quality and water management, air quality in urban areas, agriculture and forestry.
Project dates: June 2006 to December 2009CLAVIER Climate change and variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe
CLAVIER will study effects of climate change in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), specially Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. It will address (i) investigation of CEEC climate changes and their associated uncertainties; (ii) impacts on weather patterns and extremes, air pollution, human health, natural ecosystems, forestry, agriculture, infrastructure and water resources; (iii) economic impacts in CEEC, concentrating on four sectors: agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector.
Project dates: summer 2007 to 2009
Project Details AMMA-EU African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
AMMA aims to improve weather and climate forecasting in the West African Monsoon region and provide decision makers with improved assessments of rainfall changes during the 21st century due to natural fluctuations and global climate change. AMMA-EU is part of the AMMA international programme. Research involves 3 nested observation periods: the Long term Observing Period (LOP), that includes historical and long term observations (2002-2010); the Enhanced Observing Period (EOP) to document the period 2005-2007, and the Special Observing Period (SOP) focused on detailed observations of specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of the rainy season during three periods in 2006. Joint AMMA-ENSEMBLES workshops were held in Bamako, Mali in late February 2007 and Niamey, Niger in May 2008.CIRCE Climate Change and impacts research: the Mediterranean environment
CIRCE aims at developing for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and, to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders
Project dates: April 2007 to March 2011CIRCLE Climate Impact Research Coordination for a larger Europe
CIRCLE networks and aligns national research programmes on climate change impacts and adaptation in the 19 CIRCLE partner countries. The final goal is the implementation of a European Research Area (ERA) for climate change. Most of CIRCLE's output is open to the public and available from CIRCLE's web-site.
Project dates: summer 2004 to at least 2009CLARIS-LPB Hydroclimate and Society in La Plata Basin
CLARIS LPB aims at predicting the regional climate change impacts on La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America, and at designing adaptation strategies for land-use, agriculture, rural development, hydropower production, river transportation, water resources and ecological systems in wetlands.
Project dates: started November 2008ClimateCost The Full Costs of Climate Change
ClimateCost is a study of the economics of climate change to inform policy on long-term targets, the economic costs of inaction, and the costs and benefits of adaptation.
Project dates: January 2009 to August 2011
Development and use of probablistic climate change information
Project/Programme/Report Details CRANIUM
Climate change Risk Assessment: New Impact and Uncertainty Methods
This project was funded as part of the UK Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate programme - funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. CRANIUM produced daily probablislitic scenarios for 10 UK sites for the 2080s conditional on the SRES A2 emissions scenario by combining a stochastic weather generator with output from the PRUDENCE RCMs in a probabilistic framework
Project finished April 2007SKCC workshop review
SKCC briefing paperSustaining Knowledge for Climate Change
The review gives an overview of the SKCC Workshop on "The use of probabilistic climate scenarios in impacts assessment and adaptation studies" held in Norwich and organised by UEA. The briefing paper provides a general overview of uncertainty issues.
Wokshop date: 10 November 2006Edinburgh workshop
Probabilistic future climate and climate impacts prediction workshop
The workshop was organised by Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland and the School of GeoSciences at the University of Edinburgh and focused on statistical approaches to handling uncertainties for future climate and climate impacts assessment. The web page offers a summary of the presentations on current work and the structured discussion on four key themes: Emulation; Assessment of model reliability; Spatial scales and Communication of probabilistic assessments to policymakers and the public.
Wokshop dates: 25-26 September 2006RAND Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World
This RAND project is mainly focussed on decision makers in two climate-related policy areas, water policy and abrupt climate change.The project examines ways to represent uncertainty for decision makers. It strengthens the scientific foundations of robust decision making, a new approach to computer-assisted support for decision makers facing deep uncertainty.
NCAR science program The weather and climate assessment science program
This program which began in 2001 aims to develop new techniques for quantifying uncertainty in climate model projections and to apply these techniques to recent transient runs of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Recent emphasis is given to quantifying regional uncertainty. The program also intends to improve decision making through a better generation and communication of science. The project is focussed on uncertainty characterisation; extreme weather and climate events and human health.
Project/Programme/Report Details IPCC 4th Assessment Report Climate change 2007
The reports by the three Working Groups provide an up-to-date assessment of the current state of knowledge on climate change:
- Working Group I SPM "The Physical Science Basis"
- Working Group II SPM "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"
- Working Group III SPM "Mitigation of Climate Change"
Report dates: 2007CCSN Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network
The CCSN is Environment Canada's new vehicle for delivering climate change scenario information and scenario construction advice to the Canadian climate change impacts research community as well as stakeholders in industry, government, academia and nongovernmental organisations. The Network also provides global and regional climate model comparisons, tools for conducting impacts and adaptation research and leading-edge adaptation science.OURANOS Ouranos
Ouranos, based in Quebec, generates regional climate change forecasts for Canada using various models, including the Canadian Regional Climate Model. A major focus is on climate change impacts in Quebec and working with stakeholders. Ouranos provides data, downscaling tools and support networks throughout Quebec for impact and adaptation processes.
Strategic plan dates: 2004-2009NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
NARCCAP is an international program dealing with climate scenarios for the United States, Canada and Northern Mexico. The program investigates the uncertainties in regional scale projections and produces high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses to future emissions scenarios, using A2 and A1B SRES scenarios forcing. The basic spatial resolution of the RCMs is 50 km. The program includes RCMs from PRUDENCE (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), MM5 and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting).
Program dates: 2005-2009