My research interests and projects can be split into these main categories.
Natural climate variability, particularly on
decadal and century timescales, in response to natural radiative forcings (such as
and solar variability) as well as generated internally within the climate system
(involving, perhaps, variations in the ocean thermohaline circulation
or atmospheric variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation
My research includes the reconstruction of past climate variability using
climate proxy records, such as tree-ring chronologies
[data]. The main focus has been
on reconstructing temperature variations over the most recent centuries and
I also use simulations of climate variability using simple and complex
(general circulation) models
of the atmosphere and/or the oceans.
The combination of proxy climate observations with climate model simulations
is essential for testing the ability of climate models to simulate long-term changes in
climate as well as for attributing the causes of past cimate variability to
specific forcings or mechanisms
Climate variations and changes during the 20th century as recorded by
instrumental observations and satellite remote sensing. I have diagnosed changes
in precipitation intensity and extremes
in the UK, and analysed errors and variability in the global
Evaluation of the ability of climate models to realistically
simulate climate variations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation
daily weather types and air flow indices, and the structure
of precipitation variability.
Identification of possible future climate changes by diagnosing
changes simulated by climate models forced by increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases
Two specific targets of analysis have been the North Atlantic Oscillation
and future precipitation change (focussing particularly on meteorological
drought and changes in inter-annual variability or precipitation).