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An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability and extremes

About the project

Project summary

In order to predict the evolution of inter-regional linkages this century, it is crucial to understand how they have evolved in the past. This is particularly important because extremes such as drought are modulated by decadal variability. Our study is motivated by recent identification of multidecadal links between 2000-year reconstructions of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. We will go far beyond this initial finding by combining insights gained from coupled climate models and observations (instrumental, tree-ring and documentary records) to identify large-scale modes that link the variability of tropical monsoons and northern extratropical climates on multiple timescales. We will (i) better understand the teleconnections between monsoon and extratropical regions (with particular emphasis on the Arctic), (ii) evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce observed behaviour including regional extremes, (iii) explore mechanisms that drive the observed behaviour and understand how the linkages may evolve under future climate change using simulations with a hierarchy of models. Paleoclimate records, including temperature- sensitive tree-ring records from the Eurasian Arctic and precipitation-sensitive series from the Asian monsoon regions provide a unique opportunity to identify associations on annual to multidecadal timescales. CMIP5 and CMIP6 "control" and "last millennium" runs will be used to assess simulated unforced variability and response to forcings such as volcanoes and to consider SST and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with periods of extremes in the monsoon, extratropical and Arctic regions. New simulations with imposed anomalies (e.g. sea or land surface temperatures in particular regions) in conjunction with external forcing will be designed to explore the roles of basin-wide changes or land-surface interactions in generating and synchronising decadal variability. Implications for future climate change will be considered using model simulations and our improved understanding of mechanisms.

Funding

The project is funded by two international partnerships of research funders, the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate. The specific funding sources for this project are:

  • University of East Anglia funded in the UK by NERC, grant number NE/P006809/1
  • Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification funded in China by NSFC, grant number 41661144008.
  • Justus Liebig University of Giessen funded in Germany by the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Research), grant number 01LP1612A

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Workshops and meetings

Project meetings and climate-friendly research

INTEGRATE follows the principles of climate-friendly research, adopting ideas and decision-making from other intitiatives such as the Tyndall Centre's travel strategy and travel decision tree.

As such, the majority of our project meetings are carried out online using Gotomeeting (Skype can be problematic for our partners in China). We also try to travel by train to other conferences and meetings within our countries and in nearby countries. Nevertheless, we have found real value in holding two in-person project workshops -- improving the extent of understanding and the depth of discussions because face-to-face conversations help to break down some of the barriers of working in multiple languages.

INTEGRATE workshop 1

INTEGRATE workshop, Giessen, November 2018

INTEGRATE workshop, Giessen, Nov 2018

News item about the workshop.

INTEGRATE workshop 2

INTEGRATE workshop, Lanzhou, July 2019

INTEGRATE workshop, Lanzhou, Jul 2019

News item about the workshop.

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People

Project scientists

Scientific partners

The project benefits from support and collaborations with many other scientists, including:

  • Andrew Parnell, University College Dublin
  • Kevin Anchukaitis, University of Arizona
  • Quansheng Ge, PAGES 2k Asia group
  • Jostein Bakke, PAGES 2k Arctic group
  • Jessica Tierney, PAGES 2k Ocean 2k group
  • Vlad Shishov, Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk

Stakeholders

The project team are interacting with a number of stakeholders, especially in the south and east Asian regions, including:

  • Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chinese Meteorological Administration
  • Environmental Impact Assessment of Gansu Province
  • Gansu Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

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Publications and presentations

Peer-reviewed publications

These publications have been fully or partially supported by the INTEGRATE project and its activities. Refer to each publication for details of other funding sources that also supported the published work.

2019

  • Duan, J., Ma, Z., Wu, P., Xoplaki, E., Hegerl, G., Li, L., Schurer, A., and Luterbacher, J. (2019) Detection of human influences on temperature seasonality from the 19th century. Nature Sustainability 2, 484-490 (doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0276-4).
  • Gao JN, Yang B, He MH, Shishov V (2019) Intra-annual radial variation patterns in Chinese Pine of Helan Mountains in North Central China. Trees 33, 751-763 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-019-01813-w).
  • He MH, Yang B, Rossi S, Bräuning A, Kang SY (2019) Simulated and predicted responses of tree stem radial growth to climate change-A case study in semi-arid north central China. Dendrochronologia, 58, 125632 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2019.125632).
  • He MH, Yang B, Bräuning A, Rossi S, Ljungqvist FC, Shishov V, Wang JL, Liu JJ (2019) Recent advances in dendroclimatology in China. Earth Science Reviews 194, 521-535 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.02.012).
  • Ljungqvist, F.C., Seim, A., Krusic, P.J., González-Rouco, J.F., Werner, J.P., Cook, E.R., Zorita, E., Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Destouni, G., García Bustamante-Bustamante, E., Melo-Aguilar, C.A., Seftigen, K., Wang, J., Gagen, M.H., Esper, J., Fleitmann, D., Solomina, O., and Büntgen, U. (2019) Warm-season temperature and hydroclimate co-variability across Europe since 850 CE. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 084015 (doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e).
  • Ratna SB, Osborn TJ, Joshi M, Yang B and Wang J (accepted) Identifying teleconnections and multidecadal variability of East Asian surface temperature during the last millennium in CMIP5 simulations. Climate of the Past 15, 1825-1844 (doi:10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019).
  • Schneider L, Ljungqvist FC, Yang B, Chen F, Chen J, Li J, Hao X, Ge Q, Talento S, Osborn TJ and Luterbacher J (accepted) The impact of proxy selection strategies on a millennium-long ensemble of hydroclimatic records in Monsoon Asia. Quaternary Science Reviews 223 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105917).
  • Talento, S., Schneider, L., Werner, J., and Luterbacher, J. (2019) Millennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 10, 347-364 (doi:10.5194/esd-10-347-2019).
  • Wang, XF, Yang B, Ljungqvist FC (2019) The vulnerability of Qilian Juniper to extreme drought events. Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, 1-14 (doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.01191).
  • Yang B, Wang J L, Liu J J (2019) A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China. Science China: Earth Sciences 62(6), 953-963 (doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9327-1).

2018

  • Brázdil R, Kiss A, Luterbacher J, Nash DJ and Řezníčková (2018) Documentary data and the study of the past droughts: an overview of the state of the art worldwide. Climate of the Past 14, 1915-1960 (doi:10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018).
  • Duan J, Li L, Ma Z, Epser J, Büntgen U, Xoplaki E, Zhang D, Wang L, Yin H and Luterbacher J (2018) Summer cooling driven by large volcanic eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Climate online (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0664.1).
  • Esper J, St. George S, Anchukaitis K, D'Arrigo R, Ljungqvist F, Luterbacher J, Schneider L, Stoffel M, Wilson R and Büntgen U (2018) Large-scale, millennial-length warm season temperature reconstructions from tree-rings. Dendrochronolgia 50, 81-90 (doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2018.06.001).
  • Ivanov MA, Luterbacher J and Kotlarski S (2018) Effect of Model Biases on the Climate Change Signal. J. Climate 31, 6591-6610 (doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0765.1).
  • Park C-E, Jeong S-J, Joshi M, Osborn TJ, Ho C-H, Piao S, Chen D, Liu J, Yang H, Park H, Kim B-K and Feng S (2018) Keeping global warming within 1.5°C constrains emergence of aridification. Nature Climate Change 8, 70-74 (doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4).
  • Talento S and Barreiro M (2018) Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics. Earth System Dynamics 9, 285-297 (doi:10.5194/esd-9-285-2018).
  • Wang F, Ge Q, Chen D, Luterbacher J, Tokarska KB, Hao Z, Wu M (2018) An updated estimate of global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Geografiska Annaler, Series A online (doi:10.1080/04353676.2018.1488538).
  • Wang J, Yang B, Osborn TJ, Ljungqvist FC, Zhang H and Luterbacher J (2018) Causes of East Asian temperature multidecadal variability since 850 CE. Geophysical Research Letters 45 (doi:10.1029/2018GL080725).
  • Yuan N, Huang Y, Duan J, Zhu C, Xoplaki E and Luterbacher J (2018) On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory? Climate Dynamics online (doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4168-5).

2017

  • Anchukaitis K, Wilson R, Briffa KR, Büntgen U, Cook ER, D'Arrigo R, Davi N, Esper J, Frank D, Gunnarson B, Hegerl G, Helema S, Klesse S, Krusic PJ, Linderholm HW, Myglan V, Osborn TJ, Zhang P, Rydval M, Schneider L, Schurer A, Wiles G and Zorita E (2017) Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II: spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 163, 1-22 (doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020).
  • He M, Shishov V, Kaparova N, Yang B, Bräuning A, Grießinger J (2017) Process-based modeling of tree-ring formation and its relationships with climate on the Tibetan Plateau. Dendrochronologia 42i, 31-41 (doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2017.01.002).
  • Jungclaus JH, Bard E, Baroni M, Braconnot P, Cao J, Chini LP, Egorova T, Evans M, González-Rouco JF, Goosse H, Hurtt GC, Joos F, Kaplan JO, Khodri M, Klein Goldewijk K, Krivova N, LeGrande AN, Lorenz SJ, Luterbacher J, Maycock AC, Man W, Meinshausen M, Moberg A, Muscheler R, Nehrbass-Ahles C, Ottera OH, Otto-Bliesner BI, Phipps SJ, Pongratz J, Rozanov E, Schmidt GA, Schmidt H, Schmutz W, Schurer A, Shapiro AI, Sigl M, Smerdon JE, Solanki SK, Toohey M, Timmreck C, Usoskin IG, Wagner S, Wu C-J, Yeo KL, Zanchettin D, Zhang Q and Zorita E (2017) The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations. Geoscientific Model Development 10, 4005-4033 (doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017).
  • Osborn TJ, Barichivich J, Harris I, van der Schrier G and Jones PD (2017) Monitoring global drought using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index [in "State of the Climate in 2016"]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, S32-S33 (doi:10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1) (also available online here).
  • PAGES Hydro2k Consortium (2017) Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era. Climate of the Past, 13, 1851-1900 (doi:10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017).
  • Wang J, Yang B, Ljungqvist FC, Luterbacher J, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR and Zorita E (2017) Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years. Nature Geoscience 10, 512-517 (doi:10.1038/ngeo2962).
  • Yang B, He M, Shishov V, Tychkov I, Vaganov E, Rossi S, Ljungqvist FC, Bräuning A and Grießinger J (2017) New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 6966-6971 (doi:10.1073/pnas.1616608114).

Other publications, presentations and activities

These publications, presentations and activities have been fully or partially supported by the INTEGRATE project.

2019

  • Oral presentation at "Workshop on the history and mechanism of climate change: reconstruction, simulation and data mining", Lanzhou, China, 27-28 August 2019. Progress in East Asian temperature reconstruction over the last millennium. Presented by Bao Yang (in Chinese).
  • Oral presentation at "Workshop on the history and mechanism of climate change: reconstruction, simulation and data mining", Lanzhou, China, 27-28 August 2019.Hydroclimate and Temperature Covariability over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Nine Centuries. Presented by Jianglin Wang (in Chinese).
  • Oral presentation at "Syposium of Multiscale Climate Variability and Dynamics", Xi'an, China, 13-19 October, 2019. Moisture and winter temperature reconstructions in East Asia over the past two millenium. Presented by Liu Jingjing.
  • Oral presentation at "The 6th Dendrochronology Conference of China", Xishuangbanna, China, 22-27 October, 2019. Tree radial growth monitorring and simulations in Suyukou National Forest Park. Presented by Gao Jiani (in Chinese).
  • Poster presentation at "The 6th Dendrochronology Conference of China", Xishuangbanna, China, 22-27 October, 2019. 1.5kyr-long summer moisture variability in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China. Presented by Liu Jingjing (in Chinese).

2018

  • Poster presentation at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, Washington D.C., USA, 10-14 December 2018. Multidecadal climate variability of East Asia during the last millennium: roles of external forcing and internal variability. Ratna SB, Osborn T & Joshi M.
  • Poster presentation at Swiss Climate Summer School, Grindelwald, Switzerland, 2018. The impact of proxy selection on a millennium-long ensemble of hydroclimatic records in monsoonal Asia. Lea Schneider, Fredrik C. Ljungqvist, Stefanie Talento, and Jürg Luterbacher.
  • Oral presentation at 10th World Dendro Conference, Thimphu, Bhutan, 2-22 June 2018. Late 20th century divergence in maximum latewood density: 20 years on. Presented by Tim Osborn. Slides
  • Oral presentation at International conference on Earth System Science (ICESS 2018), Chengdu, China. June 1-3 2018. Chinese and North-American extremely long-lived conifers reveal millennial variations and sharp events of increased/decreased tree growth perhaps associated with environmental catastrophes. Presented by Liu Jingjing.
  • Oral presentation at EGU General Assembly 2018, Vienna, Austria. The impact of proxy characteristics on a millennium-long ensemble of hydroclimatic records in monsoonal Asia. Presented by Lea Schneider, Fredrik C. Ljungqvist, Stefanie Talento, and Jürg Luterbacher.
  • Poster presentation at EGU General Assembly 2018, Vienna, Austria. Precipitation Reconstruction over Asia: Pseudoproxy Experiments. Presented by Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider and Jürg Luterbacher.
  • Poster presentation at EGU General Assembly 2018, Vienna, Austria. Drivers of multidecadal variability of East Asian surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations of the last millennium. Presented by Satyaban Ratna, Timothy Osborn, Manoj Joshi and Bao Yang.

2017

  • Poster presentation at Past Global Changes (PAGES) Open Science Meeting, 2017 Simulated sensitivity of the tropical climate to extratropical thermal forcing. Stefanie Talento and Marcelo Barreiro.
  • Poster presentation at Past Global Changes (PAGES) Open Science Meeting, 2017 Control of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone by extratropical thermal forcing. Stefanie Talento and Marcelo Barreiro.
  • Presentation at "The fourth Young Scientist Forum of Earth Science (Chengdu, China, 2017)." The characteristics and origins of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability over the past 1200 years. Presented by Jianglin Wang.
  • Oral presentation at The Mediterranean Hot-Spot: Challenges and Responses in a Changing Environment, 2017 Climate Sensitivity to Extratropical Thermal Forcing: Model Simulations Perspective. Stefanie Talento and Marcelo Barreiro.
  • Oral presentation at Fourth International Conference on Earth System Modelling (4ICESM), 2017 Control of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone by extratropical thermal forcing. Stefanie Talento and Marcelo Barreiro.
  • Oral presentation at EGU General Assembly 2017. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the last millennium, presented by Tim Osborn on behalf of Jianglin Wang, Bao Yang, Fredrik Ljungqvist, Jürg Luterbacher, Timothy Osborn, Keith Briffa and Eduardo Zorita. Abstract
  • Poster presentation at 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU 2017, Vienna, Austria, April 23-28, 2017. Process-based modeling of tree-ring formation and their relationships with climate data on the Tibetan Plateau. Presented by Minhui He, Vladimir Shishov, Kaparova, Nazgul, Bao Yang.
  • Poster presentation at 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU 2017, Vienna, Austria, April 23-28, 2017. Long-term climatic variations in the highlands of Western China, as evidenced by a 4650-year-long chronology based on tree-ring cores from Qilian Juipers (Juniperus przewalskii Kom). Presented by Bao Yang and Jingjing Liu.
  • Oral presentation at Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises Klima der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geographie, Marburg, Germany, 2017. INTEGRATE An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability and extremes. Lea Schneider, Stefanie Talento, and Jürg Luterbacher.

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Data and software

Data

These data were either generated with support from the INTEGRATE project or are used in publications that were supported by the INTEGRATE project.

Software

This software was either developed with support from the INTEGRATE project or is used in publications that were supported by the INTEGRATE project.

  • CRUST: Climatic Research Unit Standardisation of Tree-ring data https://github.com/ClimaticResearchUnit/CRUST
    This software was not developed within INTEGRATE, but it has been used for INTEGRATE publications and INTEGRATE is helping to make it more widely available such as via placing it on this github repository.
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