GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 2024

Global temperature in 2024

Key messages:

• Refer to the first graph below
• 2024 was the warmest year on record globally and the first year that was likely more than 1.5°C above its pre-industrial levels according to the global temperature estimated jointly by UK scientists at the Met Office, the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
• The HadCRUT5 dataset shows 2024 was 1.53 (uncertainty range 1.45 to 1.62) °C above the 1850 to 1900 baseline, commonly used as the pre-industral level
• The record breaking warmth of 2024 was almost 0.07°C above 2023’s previous record (1.46°C), which had already exceeded the previous warmest year (2016) by 0.17°C, making 2024 and 2023 the warmest and second-warmest years on record.

• Refer to the second graph below
• Different groups use different ways to estimate global temperature change from millions of individual temperature observations, yet they all agree that 2024 was the warmest year on record. This illustrates how science is done, trying different approaches to check that the results are not sensitive to particular methods.
  The six different teams estimate that 2024 was between 1.46 and 1.62°C above pre-industrial, confirming that the UK team's value of 1.53°C is robust
  
  
  

  Global temperature change 1850 to 2024: HadCRUT5

  

  Annual (preliminary figure)

  
  
  
  
  

  Global temperature change 1850 to 2024: multiple datasets

  

  Annual (using only publicly available data; December 2024 not yet available for some datasets)

  Data available here: csv and xslx formats

  
  
  
  
  

  Where were the warmest temperature anomalies in 2024?

  

  Annual

  
  
  
  
  

  Where were record warm temperatures observed in 2024?

  

  Map shows where 2024 average temperatures were the warmest recorded, or second warmest, etc.

  
  
  

Has global warming exceeded the Paris 1.5°C goal?

Key messages:

• No, the Paris 1.5°C goal has not yet been exceeded
• The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold the increase in global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to try to keep it closer to 1.5°C
• However these goals are commonly interpreted to refer to the underlying warming average over more than a decade rather than to individual years
• The video below illustrates how the underlying average warming is still below 1.5°C even though our data show that the individual year 2024 was likely more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial

Where and when was it warmer or cooler than normal during 2024?

Key messages:

• Refer to the annual, seasonal and monthly maps of 2024 temperature anomalies
• 2024 began with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific (see the DJF map) from the continuing El Niño, while Antarctica was unusually cold and most other regions were warmer than the 1961-1990 baseline (+5°C in parts of Eurasia and North America)
• The El Niño dissipated over the course of the year, eventually (see the SON map) being replaced with cooler temperatures in the equatorial Pacific because as a weak La Niña event appears to have developed
• The cold Antarctic temperature anomalies disappeared first in West Antarctica (see the MAM map) and then across the whole ice sheet (by JJA), though the Southern Hemisphere spring months of September and November showed patterns with both warm and cool anomalies
• All continents showed some areas with temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C by the northern autumn (see SON map)
• There were some strong dipoles (with notably low and high temperature anomalies in neigbouring regions) that were caused by persistent anomalies in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, such as the blocking pattern over Europe in May.

Temperature anomaly patterns for 2024 (click an image for a larger version)

Annual

Annual

Seasons

Winter DJF

Spring MAM

Summer JJA

Autumn SON

Months

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Where has it warmed the most and the least?

Key messages:

• Refer to the first map below, showing the pattern of climate warming
• Observed warming has not been uniform and matches well the pattern that climate models predict
• Warming has been greatest over the northern polar regions
• Warming is generally greater over land than over the oceans
• There is slight long-term cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean, likely linked with changes in ocean circulation

• Refer to the second set of maps, showing the decadal temperature anomalies for every decade since the 1850s
• Superimposed on the long-term warming pattern is considerable variability between decades
• This is particularly noticeable over the ocean basins such as the Pacific and the North Atlantic
• The early 20th century warming (compare maps from the 1910s to the 1940s) which confined mostly to the northern polar and Atlantic regions
• In contrast, almost every location has seen warming over the last 50 years

What is the pattern of warming from the early 20th century up to 2024?

Click image for a larger version

Map shows the underlying temperature change (i.e. with short-lived variability smoothed out) from the 1880-1920 period up to the present-day.

Temperature anomaly maps for every decade since the 1850s

Click image for a larger version

2024: a record-breaking watershed year for the global climate

This is the draft text of a joint press release from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia (UEA). This will be replaced with the final text when it is ready. Refer to the media enquiries link in the header block to ask for more details.

The first annual global exceedance of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is a stark reminder global temperatures are continuing to rise.

The latest figures are getting ever closer to the Paris Agreement 1.5°C guard rail, which considers a longer-term average temperature.

2024 has recorded the highest temperature in any year since 1850, and it is the eleventh year in succession in the HadCRUT data series that has equalled or exceeded 1.0°C above the pre-industrial average period (1850-1900).

The global average temperature for January to November 2024 was 1.53±0.08°C above the 1850-1900 global average, according to the HadCRUT5 temperature series, collated by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia. December’s figures are not yet available to include within the series, but experts believe their final inclusion won’t change the conclusion that 2024 will likely be the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C and the warmest year on record. 2023’s value of 1.46°C exceeded the previous warmest year – 2016 - by 0.17°C, making 2024 and 2023 the warmest and second-warmest years on record.

A number of global climate centres will be releasing their 2024 average temperature figures today.

Colin Morice of the Met Office said: “A single year exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial does not mean a breach of the Paris Agreement 1.5°C guard rail – that would require an average temperature of at least 1.5°C over two decades. However, it does show that the headroom to avoid an exceedance of 1.5°C over a sustained period is now wafer thin.”

Professor Rowan Sutton, Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre added: “By itself 1.5°C does not represent a cliff edge in terms of climate impacts, but every fraction of a degree rise in global temperature increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, commits the world to greater rises in sea level and increases the risk of crossing potential planet-altering tipping points such as breakdown of the Amazon rainforest biome or ice sheet collapse in Greenland or the Antarctic.”

“This notable landmark further highlights the urgency of efforts to minimise future warming.”

The current global warming level (relevant to the Paris Agreement), is a measure of global warming since pre-industrial conditions without the influence of the ups and downs of annual temperature variations. Multiple estimates point towards a current global warming level of 1.3°C. A Met Office-led paper on the methodology of the global warming level assessment can be found here.

Most of the additional temperature rise since pre-industrial times is associated with the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.

Professor Tim Osborn, director of UEA's Climatic Research Unit, said: "The world as a whole has not yet begun to reduce its use of fossil gas, oil and coal, so emissions of CO2 have not yet peaked and as a result the global temperature continues to rise as predicted by climate scientists."

“Superimposed on the long-term trend are small ups and downs that typically last a year or two and arise mostly from natural variability. These small variations of 0.1 to 0.2°C can temporarily push the global temperature above or below its underlying warming trend and make an individual year such as 2024 exceed 1.5°C even though the underlying warming has not quite reached that level yet.”

A key source of this natural variability is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a pattern of climate variability in the tropical Pacific – also drives modest year-to-year warming and cooling of the global climate. An El Niño event adds about 0.2°C to the annual global temperature. El Niño affected the temperature values for both 2024 and 2023. La Niña events – which bring cooler conditions – slightly suppressed temperature values in 2021 and 2022 with ENSO conditions being neutral during the last part of 2024. Despite the modest tropical Pacific cooling, the surface temperature of the oceans was record-breaking in 2024.

Outlook for 2025

The Met Office outlook for 2025 suggests that it is likely to be one of the three warmest years for global average temperature, falling in line just behind 2024 and 2023.